WARWATCH ANALYSIS

Updated 18 September 2026: Ukraine's counteroffensive and Operation Vivaldi, the battle for Kostiantynivka after the fall of Pokrovsk, the Zaporizhzhia plant blackout, and the Witkoff–Kushner talks.

Updated 18 September 2026: the Houthi blockade of Saudi shipping, the capture of Perim island and Yemen's Red Sea coast, the East–West pipeline shutdown, oil prices and the container lines' return to Suez.

Updated 18 September 2026: strike damage at Fordow, Natanz and Isfahan, the unverified 440 kg stockpile of 60% uranium, the collapse of the Islamabad Memorandum, and Iran's referral to the UN Security Council.

Updated 18 September 2026: 200 days into the closure, traffic is at a tenth of normal, 72 ships have been attacked, Brent is back above $100, and the bypass pipelines are now targets. Why escorts have not reopened the strait.

Updated 18 September 2026: Chinese air incursions are down but coast guard presence is at a record, the Iran war exposed Taiwan's 12-day LNG reserve, and a $14 billion US arms package has been on hold since the Trump–Xi summit.

Updated 18 September 2026: six months of war, an Israeli security zone of about 600 km² in southern Lebanon, 4,300+ dead and 1.2 million displaced, and a US-brokered framework deadlocked over Hezbollah's disarmament.

The 18 September US–Denmark–Greenland security deal, NATO's new Arctic Sentry mission, Russian nuclear drills in the Barents Sea, the Svalbard ship seizure and a record Northern Sea Route season.

Updated 18 September 2026: the JNIM–FLA offensive that killed Mali's defence minister and took Kidal, the fuel blockade of Bamako, the 28–29 August coup attempt in Niger, Russia's Africa Corps under pressure and the spread towards Benin and Nigeria.

Finland takes the Fitburg and Eagle S cable cases to court, the Iran war freezes Gulf cable projects and repairs, Iran threatens Hormuz cable fees, and another Matsu cable is damaged near Taiwan.

Updated 18 September 2026: the Ninth Party Congress and the 'two hostile states' doctrine, two nuclear-capable destroyers, the 12 September strike drill, troops in Russia, Xi's visit to Pyongyang and the lessons Kim draws from the Iran war.

Updated 18 September 2026: the ramming near Sabina Shoal, the baton attack at Second Thomas Shoal, China's Scarborough reserve, Balikatan's missiles on the Luzon Strait, the missed ASEAN code of conduct deadline and Vietnam's island building.

Updated 18 September 2026: the US capture of Maduro and Delcy Rodríguez's acting government, Venezuela's rejection of the ICJ at the May hearings, the ruling expected by January 2027, Guyana's oil boom and US security role.

Updated 18 September 2026: the LoC since the May 2025 war, the 15 September naval collision, the Hague ruling on the Indus Waters Treaty, Pakistan's pact with Saudi Arabia and Türkiye, militancy in Jammu and unrest in Pakistan-administered Kashmir.

Updated 18 September 2026: al-Shabaab's recovery around Mogadishu, the president's disputed term extension and June clashes, Puntland and Jubaland's break with the centre, the end of US funding for the AU mission, Somaliland recognition and the return of piracy.

Updated 18 September 2026: China-brokered ceasefires and the army's recovery in Shan, Chin and Kachin, the staged election and Min Aung Hlaing's presidency, the new SCEF resistance council, the Arakan Army's stand in Rakhine and 3.6 million displaced.

Updated 18 September 2026: the 30 August election framework agreement, the US plan pairing Dbeibah with Saddam Haftar, the first unified budget since 2013, record oil output, fighting in Zawiya, Russia's six air bases and the migrant route to Crete.

Updated 18 September 2026: the killing of CJNG leader El Mencho and the retaliation that followed, the Sinaloa cartel war, the indicted Sinaloa governor, the reported 30% fall in homicides, the World Cup and US threats of strikes.

Updated 18 September 2026: the initialled peace treaty and Baku's constitutional condition, Pashinyan's June election win, the TRIPP framework agreement, border delimitation, Russian pressure on Yerevan and the Iran war on the southern border.

The first direct talks since 2019, Morocco's revised autonomy plan, UN Resolution 2797, a Moroccan drone strike on a senior Polisario figure and the 31 October decision on the UN mission.

Updated 18 September 2026: the January offensive and the SDF's dissolution, sanctions fully lifted, the Druze standoff in Suwayda, Israeli strikes and security talks, the new terms for Russia's bases, Syria's neutrality in the Iran war and 3 million refugee returns.

Updated 18 September 2026: 500,000 people trapped in El Obeid, the army's North Kordofan offensive, Darfur after the fall of El Fasher, the UN report on foreign support networks, and spillover into Chad, South Sudan and Ethiopia.

Updated 18 September 2026: Kurti's new government and Kosovo's unresolved presidential vote, Serbia's 25 October early election, the Thaçi and Banjska verdicts, KFOR's drawdown and the stalled EU-facilitated dialogue.