Western Sahara / Polisario 2026 — Frozen Conflict & Low-Intensity Escalation Assessment

STRATEGIC OVERVIEW

The Western Sahara conflict remains one of the world's longest-running unresolved territorial disputes. In 2026, the situation is best described as a frozen conflict with periodic low-intensity escalation, where neither side achieves decisive progress but tensions persist.

Morocco controls the majority of the territory and has integrated it administratively and economically. The Polisario Front, backed diplomatically by Algeria, continues to advocate for self-determination and maintains a limited armed presence.

Despite decades of UN-led mediation efforts, a final political resolution remains elusive, reinforcing a status quo defined by stalemate and managed tension.

THREAT VECTOR ANALYSIS

Low-Intensity Military Activity

Since the breakdown of the ceasefire in 2020, sporadic clashes have occurred along the berm — a 2,700-km defensive barrier separating Moroccan-controlled and Polisario-controlled territory. These engagements are limited in scale but maintain a baseline level of conflict.

Diplomatic Stalemate

Negotiations have stalled due to fundamentally opposing positions:

• Morocco supports autonomy under its sovereignty.
• Polisario demands a referendum on independence.

This deadlock prevents meaningful progress and freezes the dispute at the political level.

Regional Dynamics

Algeria's support for Polisario and its rivalry with Morocco add a regional dimension to the conflict. This increases strategic tension but stops short of direct confrontation. The 2021 severing of Algeria–Morocco diplomatic ties continues to shape every aspect of the file.

Information and Legitimacy Battle

Both sides engage in diplomatic and media efforts to gain international support. Recognition decisions by foreign governments — particularly major powers — meaningfully influence the strategic environment, even when they do not change facts on the ground.

MILITARY POSTURE

Morocco maintains a strong defensive position, supported by:

• The berm, an extensive defensive barrier system.
• Conventional military superiority.
• Surveillance and control infrastructure including drones and radar.

Polisario forces operate with limited mobility units, guerrilla tactics, and restricted operational capacity. The imbalance in capabilities reduces the likelihood of large-scale offensive operations from either side.

OUTLOOK

The conflict is expected to remain stable but unresolved. Key trends include:

• Continued diplomatic efforts without breakthrough.
• Occasional low-intensity clashes along the berm.
• Incremental changes in international recognition for Moroccan sovereignty claims.
• Sustained humanitarian challenges in Sahrawi refugee camps in Algeria.

A major escalation is unlikely, but long-term stagnation will persist without political compromise.

OUTLOOK SUMMARY

Western Sahara is the textbook example of a conflict that does not need to be resolved to remain stable. The combination of Moroccan structural advantages, weak external pressure, and a fragmented Sahrawi diplomatic position keeps the file frozen. Any change is more likely to come from a shift in great-power positioning — particularly toward Moroccan sovereignty — than from negotiations between the parties themselves.