Western Sahara 2026: US-Led Talks, Morocco's Autonomy Plan and the UN Mission's Uncertain Future

WHAT CHANGED SINCE APRIL

The April edition of this briefing described Western Sahara as a frozen conflict with periodic low-intensity escalation. That description still holds on the ground, but the diplomacy has moved faster than at any point in decades. In October 2025 the UN Security Council, in Resolution 2797, described Morocco's 2007 autonomy plan as a realistic and credible basis for a solution and dropped any reference to a referendum. In early 2026 the Trump administration used that opening to convene the first face-to-face talks between all parties in seven years.

Those talks produced a revised Moroccan autonomy plan but no agreement. Since late February no new round has been held, and Washington is frustrated that the Polisario has not set out a detailed written position. Meanwhile the US is weighing whether to shrink MINURSO to a pure ceasefire-monitoring mission or phase it out, and the mission's budget has already been cut. The Security Council's decision on 31 October will show whether the UN framework that has existed since 1991 survives.

BACKGROUND IN BRIEF

Western Sahara is a former Spanish colony on the Atlantic coast of North Africa. When Spain withdrew in 1975, Morocco and Mauritania took control; the Polisario Front, backed by Algeria, fought for independence. Mauritania withdrew in 1979. A UN-brokered ceasefire in 1991 created MINURSO, whose original task was to organise a referendum on self-determination. The referendum never took place because the parties could not agree who would be allowed to vote.

Today Morocco controls and administers about 80% of the territory, west of a fortified sand wall known as the berm. The Polisario controls the thinly populated strip east of it and runs the self-declared Sahrawi Arab Democratic Republic from refugee camps near Tindouf in Algeria. In November 2020, after a Moroccan operation to reopen the Guerguerat border crossing, the Polisario declared the ceasefire over. Weeks later the United States recognised Moroccan sovereignty over the territory.

TIMELINE: 2024 TO SEPTEMBER 2026

• July 2024: France backs Morocco's autonomy plan as the only basis for a solution, triggering a deep crisis in French–Algerian relations.
• 2025: Moroccan drone strikes east of the berm continue; according to UN reporting, strikes between October 2024 and September 2025 killed 21 Polisario fighters, mostly near Mijek. The UK also endorses the autonomy plan.
• 31 October 2025: The Security Council adopts US-drafted Resolution 2797 by 11 votes, with China, Russia and Pakistan abstaining and Algeria not participating. It extends MINURSO for one year and, for the first time, calls the Moroccan autonomy plan a realistic and credible basis for a political solution.
• January 2026: Morocco expands its autonomy plan into a detailed document of about 40 pages. A Polisario delegation visits Washington on 22 January; US Senior Adviser Massad Boulos meets Algerian President Abdelmadjid Tebboune in Algiers on 26 January.
• 8–9 February: Ministerial delegations from Morocco, the Polisario, Algeria and Mauritania meet at the US Embassy in Madrid — the first time since 2019 that all parties meet in person — with Boulos, US Ambassador to the UN Mike Waltz and UN envoy Staffan de Mistura.
• 23–24 February: A further round takes place in Washington. No substantive result is announced, and no new round has been scheduled since.
• Late March: A UN assessment team visits Laayoune as part of a strategic review of MINURSO.
• Early June: A Moroccan drone strike east of the berm kills Lahbib Mohamed Abdelaziz, son of the Polisario's late leader and a member of its National Secretariat, with two other fighters.
• 30 June and 28 July: US officials meet the Sahrawi Movement for Peace, a smaller Sahrawi group that supports a negotiated "third way".
• September: Moroccan Foreign Minister Nasser Bourita meets UN Secretary-General António Guterres during the UN General Assembly as the MINURSO decision approaches.

THE US-LED TALKS

The talks were driven by Washington rather than the UN, although UN envoy Staffan de Mistura co-chaired them. Three rounds took place between late January and late February — two in Washington and one in Madrid — with foreign ministers or senior officials from all four parties. For Morocco the format was a success: it presented its revised plan as the only basis for negotiation and could point to Resolution 2797.

The revised plan, as described by those who have seen it, offers self-rule under Moroccan sovereignty with a regional government, but the head of the region would be appointed by the king rather than elected, and the constitutional change would be voted on by all Moroccans rather than by Sahrawis alone. The Polisario has pushed for a looser relationship with Morocco, often compared to Puerto Rico's status with the United States, and insists that any settlement be approved by the Sahrawi people in a vote. Algerian and Polisario sources say the emerging ideas resemble the 2003 Baker Plan, which foresaw a period of autonomy followed by a referendum that included independence as an option. Morocco rejects any referendum on independence.

The key disagreements are therefore unchanged: how much autonomy, who elects the region's leaders, and whether Sahrawis get a final vote. Reports that the parties agreed to set up expert committees and aim for a framework agreement by May were never officially confirmed, and no May round took place.

MINURSO AND THE 31 OCTOBER DECISION

MINURSO has monitored the ceasefire line since 1991. Its referendum mandate has been effectively dead for decades, and Resolution 2797 no longer mentions a referendum at all. The Secretary-General was asked to carry out a strategic review of the mission's future, and a UN team visited Laayoune in March.

According to reporting by Africa Intelligence, the US is considering two options: limiting MINURSO strictly to monitoring armed clashes between Morocco and the Polisario, or gradually phasing the mission out. Its budget for July 2026 to June 2027 has already been reduced from $71 million to $63 million, in line with wider US cuts to UN peacekeeping. Morocco would welcome a narrower mission. The Polisario and Algeria see MINURSO as the last international guarantee of the referendum promise and would treat its closure as the end of the UN process.

THE MILITARY SITUATION

Since November 2020 the conflict has been a low-intensity war along the berm. The Polisario fires rockets and mortars at Moroccan positions, occasionally reaching towns such as Smara and Mahbes; in October 2023 a strike on Smara killed one civilian. Morocco relies on its fortified wall and on armed drones, which have given it a clear advantage. Strikes east of the berm have killed dozens of Polisario fighters and several civilians, including miners and traders.

The June 2026 strike was the most significant since fighting resumed. Lahbib Mohamed Abdelaziz was a field commander and was widely seen as a possible successor to Polisario leader Brahim Ghali. The Polisario said the three men killed were leading attacks on Moroccan positions. The killing did not change the military balance, but it shows how drones have allowed Morocco to target the movement's leadership with little risk. Neither side has the capacity or the intention to launch a major offensive.

REGIONAL AND INTERNATIONAL DYNAMICS

• Algeria: the Polisario's main backer and host of the Tindouf camps. It took part in the 2026 talks, which Morocco had long demanded, but it still supports self-determination. Relations with Morocco remain broken: Algeria cut diplomatic ties in 2021, and its dispute with France over the Sahara continues.
• Mauritania: a neutral party that attends talks as a neighbour, with growing economic ties to Morocco.
• United States: has recognised Moroccan sovereignty since 2020 and now leads the diplomacy, but has not said what it wants from the October vote.
• Europe: Spain, France and the UK all back the autonomy plan as the basis for talks, though their exact wording differs. EU courts have ruled that trade deals covering Western Sahara need the consent of its people, which complicates EU–Morocco trade.
• Russia and China: abstained on Resolution 2797 and prefer to keep the traditional UN framework.

The dispute is also linked to the Sahel crisis. Morocco is promoting an Atlantic initiative to give landlocked Sahel states access to its ports, while Algeria's relations with the Sahel juntas have soured. Instability in Libya and migration routes towards Spain's Canary Islands add to Europe's interest in a stable Maghreb.

OUTLOOK: WHAT TO WATCH

• 31 October: whether the Security Council renews MINURSO unchanged, narrows it to ceasefire monitoring, or begins to wind it down.
• A new round of talks: whether Washington can bring the parties back to the table, and whether the Polisario puts a written counter-proposal on paper.
• Polisario leadership: the succession debate after the June killing, and whether younger commanders push for more attacks.
• Algeria: signs of any change in its position, and its relations with France and the US.
• Drone war: further strikes on Polisario leaders or civilians east of the berm.

The most likely outcome for the rest of 2026 is a renewed but weaker MINURSO, continued low-level fighting and a diplomatic process that has more momentum than at any point since 2007 but no agreement. A full settlement in the near term remains unlikely.

FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS

What is the Western Sahara conflict about?

It is a dispute over a former Spanish colony in North-West Africa. Morocco controls about 80% of the territory and claims it as part of its kingdom. The Polisario Front, backed by Algeria, seeks independence through a referendum on self-determination, which was promised in 1991 but never held.

Who are the Polisario Front?

The Polisario Front is the Sahrawi independence movement founded in 1973. It runs the self-declared Sahrawi Arab Democratic Republic from refugee camps near Tindouf in Algeria and controls the thinly populated area east of Morocco's berm. It is led by Brahim Ghali.

What is Morocco's autonomy plan?

Morocco's autonomy plan, first presented in 2007 and expanded in 2026, offers Western Sahara self-rule under Moroccan sovereignty. The UN Security Council called it a realistic and credible basis for a solution in October 2025. The Polisario rejects it because it excludes independence and a Sahrawi vote.

Were there peace talks on Western Sahara in 2026?

Yes. The US convened three rounds between late January and late February 2026, in Madrid and Washington, with Morocco, the Polisario Front, Algeria and Mauritania — the first time all parties met in person since 2019. No agreement was reached and no new round has been held since February.

What is MINURSO and what happens on 31 October 2026?

MINURSO is the UN mission created in 1991 to monitor the ceasefire and organise a referendum. Its mandate expires on 31 October 2026. The Security Council must decide whether to renew it, narrow it to ceasefire monitoring or wind it down; the US is reported to be considering the last two options.

Is there fighting in Western Sahara?

Yes, at a low level. Since the ceasefire collapsed in November 2020, the Polisario has attacked Moroccan positions along the berm with rockets and mortars, while Morocco uses armed drones east of the wall. In June 2026 a drone strike killed senior Polisario figure Lahbib Mohamed Abdelaziz.

Which countries support Morocco's position?

The United States recognised Moroccan sovereignty in 2020. Spain, France and the UK back the autonomy plan as the basis for a solution, as do many African and Arab states. Algeria supports the Polisario, while Russia and China favour the traditional UN process.

AUTHOR

SOURCES AND REFERENCES

• Security Council Report — Western Sahara, April 2026 Monthly Forecast
• ASIL — Security Council renews MINURSO mandate (Resolution 2797)
• International Crisis Group — Renewed US-led talks in Madrid
• Middle East Eye — Inside the US-led talks on Western Sahara
• Maghreb Online / Africa Intelligence — Washington's scenarios for MINURSO
• Hespress — Drone strike kills rising Polisario figure
• Human Rights Watch — World Report 2026: Morocco and Western Sahara
• MINURSO — United Nations Peace Operations