Serbia–Kosovo 2026: A Calmer North, a Presidential Deadlock and the Thaçi Verdict

WHAT CHANGED SINCE APRIL

The April edition of this briefing described Serbia–Kosovo as a frozen conflict with a persistent risk of escalation in the north. The security picture has since become calmer, while politics in both capitals has become more unsettled. In Kosovo, Prime Minister Albin Kurti won his third election in 18 months on 7 June and formed a government on 13 September, but the failure to elect a president, which triggered that election, has not been solved. In Serbia, President Aleksandar Vučić has called early parliamentary elections for 25 October after almost two years of protests. In The Hague, the Kosovo Specialist Chambers sentenced Thaçi and three other former Kosovo Liberation Army (KLA) commanders.

None of these events has produced violence. Together, however, they make 2026 a year of domestic transition on both sides, and that usually leaves little room for compromise in the dialogue between Belgrade and Pristina.

TIMELINE: FEBRUARY 2025 TO SEPTEMBER 2026

• February 2025: Vetëvendosje wins Kosovo's regular parliamentary election but falls short of a majority. The opposition blocks the formation of a government for the rest of the year, leading to a snap election in December.
• 2025: Kosovo closes most remaining Serbian-run institutions in the north, including tax, social welfare and utility offices. Serb mayors return to the four northern municipalities after local elections in October.
• 28 December 2025: In the snap election Vetëvendosje wins about half the vote. On 11 February 2026 the Assembly approves a Kurti government.
• 5–6 March 2026: The Assembly fails to elect a president. President Vjosa Osmani dissolves it; the Constitutional Court suspends the decree and on 25 March rules it invalid, giving the Assembly 34 days to elect a head of state.
• 4 April: Osmani's term ends and Albulena Haxhiu becomes acting president.
• 24 April: The Basic Court in Pristina convicts three Kosovo Serbs over the September 2023 Banjska attack, in which a Kosovo police officer was killed. Two receive life sentences and one 30 years. The alleged leader, Milan Radoičić, remains in Serbia.
• 28 April: A second attempt to elect a president fails amid an opposition boycott, and a new election is called.
• 7 June: Vetëvendosje wins again, with 53 of 120 seats, on the lowest turnout in Kosovo's history. NATO announces "calibrated reductions" in KFOR troop numbers the same month.
• August: KFOR begins handing security at the main Ibar bridge in Mitrovica to Kosovo Police. Kurti agrees with the Democratic League of Kosovo (LDK) to back law professor Bekim Sejdiu for president, but six LDK deputies reject the deal.
• 9 September: Vučić dissolves Serbia's parliament and calls elections for 25 October. On 14 September the student protest movement registers its own electoral list.
• 13 September: The Kosovo Assembly approves Kurti's fourth government with 62 votes, supported by minority deputies, while the main opposition boycotts the session.
• 16 September: The Kosovo Specialist Chambers convict Thaçi, Jakup Krasniqi, Kadri Veseli and Rexhep Selimi of war crimes. Thaçi and Krasniqi receive 25 years, Veseli 18 and Selimi 13.

KOSOVO: A GOVERNMENT WITHOUT A PRESIDENT

Kosovo's constitution requires a two-thirds majority of the 120-member Assembly, at least in the first two rounds, and a quorum of two-thirds for the president to be elected. That gives the opposition an effective veto. Vetëvendosje has come first in every election since 2021, but the Democratic Party of Kosovo (PDK) and LDK have used the presidential vote to force repeated elections, arguing that Kurti's government has violated procedures and damaged relations with Western partners.

The new government, approved on 13 September with 62 votes, relies on Vetëvendosje's 53 seats and the support of minority deputies. The opposition boycotted the session. The presidential vote remains unresolved, and if it fails again Kosovo could face a fourth election in two years. Voter fatigue is visible: turnout in June was the lowest ever recorded. The deadlock has also slowed legislation, including reforms tied to EU funding.

THE NORTH: INTEGRATION AND A LIGHTER NATO FOOTPRINT

The four Serb-majority municipalities in the north, North Mitrovica, Zvečan, Zubin Potok and Leposavić, have been the centre of every crisis since 2021. In 2024 and 2025 Kosovo closed most of the parallel institutions run by Serbia, including post offices, tax, welfare and utility services, and extended the use of the euro. Serbia and Kosovo Serb leaders described these moves as pressure on the Serb community; Pristina described them as the normal operation of the state.

The political temperature fell after the October 2025 local elections, which returned Serb mayors backed by the Belgrade-supported Serb List to the northern municipalities, ending the period in which Albanian mayors elected on very low turnout governed there. Police operations continue. In April 2026 police raids in Banovë and Prevlak seized weapons. But there has been no violence on the scale of 2023.

That calm is reflected in NATO's posture. In June 2026 the alliance announced "calibrated reductions" in KFOR, which had been reinforced after the 2023 clashes, and in August KFOR began transferring security at the Ibar bridge in Mitrovica to Kosovo Police. The bridge has been a symbol of division in the city since 1999.

JUSTICE: BANJSKA AND THE THAÇI VERDICT

Two court rulings in 2026 have touched the most sensitive parts of each community's history. In April the Pristina Basic Court convicted three Kosovo Serbs of terrorism for the Banjska attack of 24 September 2023, when an armed Serb group fought Kosovo Police near a monastery in the north. One police officer and three attackers were killed. Kosovo has repeatedly asked Serbia to hand over Milan Radoičić, a former vice-president of Serb List who admitted leading the group. Serbia has not done so.

On 16 September the Kosovo Specialist Chambers, a court in The Hague that is part of Kosovo's judicial system but staffed by international judges, convicted Hashim Thaçi, Kosovo's former president and prime minister, of war crimes committed by the KLA in 1998–99, including the murder of 96 people. All four defendants were acquitted of crimes against humanity and can appeal. Thousands gathered in Pristina in protest, and Foreign Minister Glauk Konjufca called the verdict "terrible and harmful to Kosovo". Serbia's Deputy Prime Minister Ivica Dačić said it confirmed Belgrade's view of the KLA. Critics in Kosovo point out that the court tries only KLA members, while most crimes by Serbian forces, which killed more than 10,000 civilians, have gone unpunished.

SERBIA: PROTESTS AND AN EARLY ELECTION

Serbia's politics have been dominated since November 2024 by protests over the collapse of a concrete canopy at the Novi Sad railway station, which killed 16 people. Students led demonstrations accusing the government of corruption in the renovation, drawing crowds of hundreds of thousands at their peak. They are the most serious challenge to Vučić's Serbian Progressive Party since it came to power in 2012.

On 9 September Vučić called early parliamentary elections for 25 October, and the student movement has entered the race with its own list. The campaign is likely to limit Belgrade's flexibility on Kosovo. No major Serbian party supports recognition, and nationalist rhetoric tends to increase during campaigns. The Thaçi verdict, delivered a week after the election was called, is likely to feature in it.

THE DIALOGUE AND THE WIDER REGION

The EU-facilitated dialogue produced the Brussels and Ohrid agreements of February and March 2023, under which Serbia would not block Kosovo's international membership and Kosovo would establish an Association of Serb-majority Municipalities. Neither side has implemented the core commitments. With an election campaign in Serbia and a fragile government in Pristina, no progress is expected before 2027.

Regional alignments are also shifting. In March 2025 Albania, Croatia and Kosovo signed a defence cooperation declaration, which Belgrade condemned; Serbia signed a defence agreement with Hungary in April 2025. Serbia continues to balance between the EU, Russia and China, while Kosovo's decision in March 2026 to send troops to the international force in Gaza signalled its alignment with Western partners.

OUTLOOK: WHAT TO WATCH

• Kosovo's presidential vote. An agreed candidate would end an 18-month crisis. Another failure could mean a fourth election and further delays to EU-related reforms.
• Serbia's 25 October election. A strong result for the student list would change Serbian politics. A comfortable win for Vučić's party would confirm the status quo.
• Reactions to the Thaçi verdict. Protests in Kosovo have been peaceful so far. The appeals process will keep the issue alive for months.
• KFOR reductions. The pace of NATO's drawdown, and any incident in the north during it, will test whether the calm is durable.
• The dialogue. Any EU initiative after the Serbian election, particularly on the Association of Serb-majority Municipalities, would be the first sign of movement since 2023.

Serbia–Kosovo remains unresolved, but the nature of the risk has changed. The danger of armed confrontation in the north has receded; the obstacles now are political deadlock in Pristina, an election in Belgrade and a legacy of the 1990s that both societies still read very differently.

FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS

What is the situation between Serbia and Kosovo in September 2026?

There is no armed conflict, and the north has been calmer than in 2023. Kosovo formed a new government on 13 September 2026 but still has no elected president, Serbia holds an early election on 25 October, and the EU-facilitated dialogue is stalled.

Why does Kosovo not have a president?

Electing a president requires two-thirds participation in the 120-member Assembly, which gives the opposition an effective veto. After failed votes in March and April 2026, a snap election was held on 7 June. Albulena Haxhiu has served as acting president since 4 April.

Who won Kosovo's June 2026 election?

Albin Kurti's Vetëvendosje won 53 of 120 seats in the 7 June 2026 election, its third win in 18 months. With the support of minority deputies, Kurti's new government was approved on 13 September with 62 votes.

What was the Hashim Thaçi verdict?

On 16 September 2026 the Kosovo Specialist Chambers in The Hague convicted former president Hashim Thaçi of war crimes committed during the 1998–99 war, including the murder of 96 people, and sentenced him to 25 years. Three co-defendants received 13 to 25 years. All can appeal.

What was the Banjska attack?

On 24 September 2023 an armed group of Kosovo Serbs attacked Kosovo Police near Banjska in northern Kosovo, killing one officer. Three attackers were also killed. In April 2026 a Pristina court sentenced two participants to life and one to 30 years. The alleged leader, Milan Radoičić, is in Serbia.

Is KFOR leaving Kosovo?

No, but NATO announced "calibrated reductions" in KFOR in June 2026, and in August KFOR began handing security at Mitrovica's main Ibar bridge to Kosovo Police.

Why is Serbia holding early elections?

President Aleksandar Vučić called early parliamentary elections for 25 October 2026 after nearly two years of student-led protests that began when a railway station canopy collapsed in Novi Sad in November 2024, killing 16 people.

Does Serbia recognise Kosovo?

No. Kosovo declared independence in 2008 and is recognised by more than 100 UN member states, but Serbia, Russia, China and five EU members do not recognise it. The 2023 Brussels agreement commits Serbia not to block Kosovo's membership of international organisations, but it has not been fully implemented.

AUTHOR

SOURCES AND REFERENCES

• Al Jazeera – Kosovo approves new government after months of political deadlock
• AP / ABC News – Kosovo gets new government but political impasse persists
• Prishtina Insight – Kosovo election results signal need for new presidential deal
• 2026 Kosovan parliamentary election – results and background
• Al Jazeera – Former Kosovo President Hashim Thaci sentenced to 25 years for war crimes
• NPR – Kosovo's ex-President Thaci convicted of war crimes
• Balkan Insight – Kosovo finds three Serbs guilty of 2023 armed attack in Banjska
• Balkan Insight – Serbia's Vucic calls early parliamentary elections for October 25
• AP / ABC News – Serbia's protesting youth formally join race challenging Vucic
• Security Council Report – Kosovo, April 2026 Monthly Forecast
• Human Rights Watch – World Report 2026: Serbia/Kosovo