WHAT CHANGED SINCE APRIL
The April edition of this briefing described a "post-conflict but highly unstable phase", with no comprehensive peace agreement. The situation in September 2026 looks different. The two countries are not yet formally at peace, but they are behaving as if they were. There has been no significant fighting on the border in 2026. The delimitation commissions agreed working rules in April. Azerbaijani fuel is sold in Armenia, and grain from Russia and Kazakhstan reaches Armenia by rail through Azerbaijan. Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev said in February that peace had "already been achieved".
Two things have not changed. Azerbaijan still holds the military advantage and sets the conditions for the final treaty. And Armenia's political course, away from Russia and towards the EU and the United States, remains contested at home and in Moscow. Pashinyan's re-election on 7 June confirmed that course but did not give him the votes to finish the peace process on his own.
TIMELINE: AUGUST 2025 TO SEPTEMBER 2026
- 8 August 2025: At the White House, Pashinyan and Aliyev sign a joint declaration with President Trump and initial the text of a peace treaty. They agree to establish diplomatic relations and to build the Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity (TRIPP), a road and rail link across Armenia's Syunik province connecting Azerbaijan with its Nakhchivan exclave.
- October 2025: Aliyev announces that all restrictions on cargo transit to Armenia are lifted. The first shipment, Kazakh grain, reaches Armenia through Azerbaijan.
- 9 February 2026: JD Vance becomes the first US vice-president to visit Armenia. The two countries sign a civil nuclear cooperation agreement.
- 17 February: A Baku court sentences Ruben Vardanyan, a former senior official of the Karabakh Armenian administration, to 20 years in prison. Amnesty International calls the trial a "travesty".
- 5 March: Drones strike Nakhchivan airport and a school during the Iran war, injuring four civilians. Aliyev accuses Iran; Tehran denies responsibility.
- 29 April: The 13th meeting of the border delimitation commissions, held at Aghveran in Armenia, agrees draft rules for expert work, mapping and publication of the border.
- May: Armenia holds its first summit with the EU on 5 May. Türkiye lifts restrictions on direct trade with Armenia on 13 May. Russia bans imports of Armenian mineral water, wine and brandy on 23 May. On 26 May Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan sign the TRIPP framework agreement in Yerevan.
- 7 June: Pashinyan's Civil Contract wins the parliamentary election with 49.8% and 64 seats. Strong Armenia, led by the detained Russian-Armenian billionaire Samvel Karapetyan, comes second with about 23%.
- August: A Baku appeals court upholds the sentences of Armenian prisoners convicted in connection with Karabakh. Construction on the Azerbaijani railway to the Armenian border continues.
THE PEACE TREATY AND THE CONSTITUTION
The treaty text was agreed in March 2025 and initialled in Washington that August. It provides for mutual recognition of territorial integrity, diplomatic relations, the withdrawal of third-party forces from the border and the renunciation of territorial claims. Azerbaijan will not sign until Armenia removes from its constitution the preamble reference to the 1990 Declaration of Independence, which Baku says implies a claim to Karabakh.
Pashinyan has promised a new constitution approved by referendum and has named 2027 as the target. The June election made that harder. Civil Contract won a clear majority but not the two-thirds that Al Jazeera and other outlets reported was needed to put a new constitution to a referendum without opposition support. The main opposition parties, Strong Armenia and Robert Kocharyan's Armenia Alliance, have opposed changing the constitution under Azerbaijani pressure. Pashinyan may still find a route, but the timetable is uncertain.
Both governments have an interest in the treaty remaining unsigned but largely observed. Baku keeps leverage over Yerevan through the constitutional condition. Pashinyan can point to practical benefits such as open transit, cheaper fuel and US investment without first winning a referendum. The risk is that the arrangement depends on two leaders. A change of government in Yerevan, or a decision in Baku that the delay is deliberate, could bring the old tensions back quickly.
TRIPP: THE ROUTE THROUGH SYUNIK
The route that Azerbaijan used to call the "Zangezur corridor" is now being built as TRIPP, under Armenian sovereignty but with US commercial control. According to the framework agreement of 26 May, a TRIPP Development Company will build the initial rail and road links. The United States will hold 74% for 49 years and 51% for a further 50 years, and will provide upfront capital in return for transit fees and commercial opportunities. The corridor, about 42 km long, is also planned to carry data and energy lines.
CEPA reported in August that railway surveying has been agreed, that Azerbaijan expects to finish its own rail link to the border in 2027, and that construction on Armenian territory should start between late 2026 and early 2027. When complete, the route would give Azerbaijan and Türkiye a direct land link and create a trade path between Central Asia and Europe that avoids both Russia and Iran. For Armenia it offers US investment and a security interest from Washington in its southern province.
RUSSIA, THE EU AND ARMENIA'S DIRECTION
Armenia has frozen its participation in the Russia-led Collective Security Treaty Organisation and is moving towards the EU, whose first summit with Yerevan took place in May. Russia has responded with economic pressure. It banned imports of several Armenian drinks brands in May and restricted fish imports in June, and the Eurasian Economic Union called on Armenia to hold a referendum on choosing between the EU and continued membership of the Russian-led bloc. CEPA describes Moscow's tools as including product bans, gas price threats and alleged ultimatums.
The June election was fought largely on this question. Karapetyan, who is under house arrest on charges of calling for the overthrow of the government, which he rejects as political, led the main pro-Russian opposition. European leaders congratulated Pashinyan. Armenia's Investigative Committee opened 59 criminal cases over alleged electoral violations.
TÜRKİYE AND IRAN
Normalisation with Türkiye is moving alongside the Azerbaijan track. Ankara lifted restrictions on direct trade in May. The land border, closed since 1993, has not yet opened for general traffic, and Türkiye has long linked full normalisation to a settlement between Armenia and Azerbaijan.
Iran has been the most hostile neighbour to TRIPP, which would place a US-controlled route along its northern border and reduce its role as a transit country. The Iran war brought the risk closer. The drone strike on Nakhchivan on 5 March damaged the airport and a school. Azerbaijan evacuated its embassy staff, briefly closed the border and then sent humanitarian aid to Iran, and the two presidents spoke on 8 March. Tehran said the attack was an Israeli "false flag", although an IRGC-linked channel described it as a "warning". The incident did not interrupt the peace process, but it showed that TRIPP will run through a region exposed to wider conflict.
KARABAKH AND THE PRISONERS
About 100,000 Karabakh Armenians fled to Armenia after Azerbaijan's offensive of September 2023. There is no prospect of their return under current conditions. Azerbaijan holds a number of former Karabakh Armenian leaders and other detainees. Vardanyan received 20 years on 42 charges including terrorism and war crimes, and other former Karabakh leaders have also received long sentences. The detainees remain a major grievance in Armenia and a subject that Pashinyan's opponents use against him.
MILITARY BALANCE
Azerbaijan retains clear military superiority, built on Turkish and Israeli equipment, drones and combat experience from 2020 and 2023. Armenia is rebuilding with new suppliers, notably India and France, and moving away from Russian weapons. Neither side has shown any intention of renewed conflict, and the border has been calm since the treaty text was agreed. The delimitation process now matters more than troop deployments: the April agreement on working methods is the basis for turning an unmarked line of about 1,000 km into a recognised border.
OUTLOOK: WHAT TO WATCH
- A constitutional referendum. Whether Pashinyan can put a new constitution to a vote in 2027, and whether it passes, will decide when the treaty is signed.
- TRIPP construction. The start of work on Armenian soil, expected between late 2026 and early 2027, will show whether the US commitment is real.
- Russian pressure. Further trade bans, gas price increases or moves around Russia's base at Gyumri would signal how far Moscow will go to hold Armenia.
- Iran. Any Iranian action against TRIPP or Azerbaijan, especially if the war resumes, is the main external risk to the process.
- Border delimitation. The first sections agreed on maps would be the clearest sign that the peace is becoming permanent.
The South Caucasus is moving from war to a US-brokered settlement that reduces Russian and Iranian influence. The settlement is real but incomplete, and it depends heavily on the political survival of Pashinyan and on continued US attention.
FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS
Have Armenia and Azerbaijan signed a peace treaty?
Not yet. The leaders initialled the treaty text at the White House on 8 August 2025. Azerbaijan says it will sign only after Armenia removes what Baku regards as territorial claims from its constitution, which requires a referendum that Armenia's government is aiming for in 2027.
What is the TRIPP route?
The Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity is a planned road and rail corridor of about 42 km across Armenia's Syunik province, linking mainland Azerbaijan with its Nakhchivan exclave. Under a framework agreement signed on 26 May 2026, a US-controlled company will build and operate it under Armenian sovereignty.
Who won Armenia's 2026 election?
Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan's Civil Contract party won the 7 June 2026 election with about 49.8% of the vote and 64 seats. Strong Armenia, led by Samvel Karapetyan, came second with about 23%. Civil Contract did not win a two-thirds majority.
Is there fighting on the Armenia–Azerbaijan border in 2026?
No significant fighting has been reported in 2026. The border commissions agreed rules for delimitation in April, and Azerbaijan now allows fuel exports and transit cargo to Armenia.
What happened to Nagorno-Karabakh?
Azerbaijan took full control of Nagorno-Karabakh in September 2023, and about 100,000 ethnic Armenians fled to Armenia. Former Karabakh leaders are held in Baku; Ruben Vardanyan was sentenced to 20 years in February 2026.
How is Russia reacting to Armenia's shift to the West?
Russia has banned imports of several Armenian products, and the Russian-led Eurasian Economic Union has called on Armenia to choose between it and the EU in a referendum. Armenia has frozen its participation in the Russian-led security alliance, the CSTO.
How did the Iran war affect the South Caucasus?
On 5 March 2026 drones struck Azerbaijan's Nakhchivan exclave, damaging the airport and a school. Azerbaijan blamed Iran, which denied it. The two sides de-escalated within days, and the Armenia–Azerbaijan process continued.
Are Armenia and Türkiye normalising relations?
Yes, gradually. Türkiye lifted restrictions on direct trade with Armenia in May 2026. The land border remains closed to general traffic, and Ankara links full normalisation to the Armenia–Azerbaijan peace treaty.
AUTHOR
Kasim Kasimoglu is a geopolitical and military systems analyst focusing on conventional warfare, force posture, and nuclear deterrence. His analysis integrates open-source intelligence with structured military assessment frameworks, drawing on reporting from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), and national defense ministries. His work centers on state-level conflicts across Europe and the Indo-Pacific, with an emphasis on operational dynamics and strategic balance.
Read more about the WarWatch editorial team on the About page.
SOURCES AND REFERENCES
- Al Jazeera – Pro-Western PM Pashinyan sees off Russian pressure to win Armenia election
- CEPA – Trump's Route begins to re-make the South Caucasus (August 2026)
- Armenian Foreign Ministry – TRIPP Framework Agreement (26 May 2026)
- US Embassy in Armenia – The United States and Armenia announce the TRIPP Framework Agreement
- International Crisis Group – Armenia and Azerbaijan: the hard road to a lasting peace
- RAND – What prospects for lasting peace between Armenia and Azerbaijan?
- OC Media – Armenian government faces uphill battle over new constitution
- Armenian Weekly – Armenia, Azerbaijan hold border delimitation talks in Aghveran
- 2026 drone strikes on Nakhchivan – overview
- Amnesty International – Ruben Vardanyan's 20-year prison term
- Caspian News – President Aliyev says peace with Armenia 'already achieved'
TRACK SOUTH CAUCASUS DEVELOPMENTS IN REAL TIME
⊙ OPEN LIVE MAP